While the 2026 wildfire forecast from AccuWeather projects fewer fires than last year, experts predict more acres will burn due to persistent drought, dry fuels, and extreme heat. That means the wildfires that do occur could become large, scorching extensive areas before being contained or extinguished.

According to the National Interagency Coordination Center Wildland Fire Summary, in 2025, 77,850 wildfires burned more than 5.1 million acres. That same analysis noted that the reported number of wildfires was significantly higher than both five- and 10-year averages.

AccuWeather predicts 65,000 to 80,000 wildfires will burn 5.5 to 8 million acres in 2026.

The highest fire risk, according to AccuWeather, is expected across the Southwest, Rockies, Great Basin, and Interior Northwest. California is expected to see fire danger increase as the summer progresses, in areas where grasses dry out and become more flammable.

Highest Wildfire Risk Areas

Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead long-range expert, said the greatest U.S. wildfire risks are expected across the interior Southeast and mid-Atlantic, the Southwest and High Plains, and, developing quickly this summer, the Northwest and Great Basin.

He added that in the Southwest, central Rockies, High Plains, and interior Southwest, areas such as southern Colorado, New Mexico, and the western Texas Panhandle are expected to be hotspots in June and early July due to hot, dry, and windy conditions with low humidity, persistent drought, and dry grasses. The High Plains may remain vulnerable through summer because monsoon moisture may not reach far enough east.

In the Northwest, Great Basin and Northern Rockies, the wildfire risk is expected to build rapidly by late June into September, especially east of the Cascades, across the northern Rockies, Idaho, western Montana, northern Nevada, and Utah, Pastelock said. Heat, below-average rainfall, drought and dry lightning are key concerns.

In the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, Pastelok explained risk is more episodic but still notable, especially where drought persists and where Helene left downed trees and deadfall, particularly in western North Carolina.

Drought & Heat Intensify Fire Conditions

Pastelok also explained that drought and heat intensify fire conditions by drying vegetation and dead fuels, making them easier to ignite and allowing fires to spread faster. This is especially important in the Southwest, High Plains, Northwest, Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Northern California, and western Canada.

“In the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and parts of the Great Lakes, repeated rainfall and higher soil and fuel moisture are expected to keep the wildfire risk lower overall,” Pastelok said. “In the Southeast and Gulf states, summer thunderstorms and tropical moisture can reduce fire risk, although dry stretches may still cause flare-ups.”

Long-Range Impact of Wildfire Smoke

Wildfire smoke can travel hundreds or even thousands of miles from the fire source, Pastelok pointed out.

AccuWeather's forecast highlights smoke and air quality concerns this season from central Canada south into the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and at times the Northeast. Smoke from the Great Basin, Northern California, and the Northwest may also affect surrounding regions, and late-summer smoke may spread through the Plains and Midwest.

“People should monitor air quality alerts, limit outdoor activity during smoky periods, keep windows closed, use filtered indoor air when possible, and consider high-quality masks when outdoor exposure is unavoidable, and the smoke is at or near ground level,” Pastelok suggested.

Wildfire Smoke Impact on Air Quality

Wildfire smoke can create poor air quality far from active fires because fine particles can be carried long distances by upper-level winds. Pastelok said that in 2026, the main smoke-related air quality concerns are expected from central Canada into the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and sometimes the Northeast.

“Additional smoke concerns are possible in the Great Basin, Northern California, and the Northwest, with smoke spreading into the Plains and Midwest later in summer and early fall,” he added.

Reduced Visibility Impact on Fleets

Pastelok said the biggest travel concerns would include reduced visibility from smoke, road closures near active fires, rapidly changing wind conditions, and poor air quality that can affect drivers during loading, unloading, or roadside stops.

For trucking operations and fleets, the most important step is to check conditions frequently before and during trips, especially across the Southwest, High Plains, Northwest, Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Northern California, and areas downwind of Canadian wildfires, he explained.

“Fleets can monitor AccuWeather forecasts along their route from AccuWeather.com and the free AccuWeather app, as well as receive government alerts for their location. The free AccuWeather app provides localized air quality updates, an interactive air quality map, and a wildfire smoke map to help people track smoke and changing conditions in real time,” he said. “Specific states have 511 sites that often highlight road closures, as well.”

Be Ready to Evacuate if Needed

The American Red Cross provides a Wildfire Preparedness Checklist as a free, downloadable resource, with tips on what to do both before and after a wildfire. That checklist includes instructions on how to be ready to evacuate quickly to a safe area if needed.

Evacuation preparedness tips, from the Wildfire Preparedness Checklist, are:

• You may have to leave your home quickly to stay safe.
• Know where you will go, how you will get there, and where you will stay.
• Have different escape routes from your home and community.
• Practice these routes so everyone in your household is familiar with them.
• Be sure to understand how your community will respond to a wildfire.
• Have an evacuation plan for pets and livestock.
• Ensure your gas tank is full and you are ready to leave at a moment’s notice.