2024 work truck trends reveal a recovery in new inventory, challenges in used markets, aging fleets, and shifting buyer demands amidst economic pressures.
The commercial vehicle market in 2024 is experiencing a shifting landscape as inventory levels stabilize, pricing trends evolve, and buyer behavior adapts to lingering economic and regulatory pressures. While the new vehicle market shows promising recovery, the used market faces unique challenges, including aging assets, price divides, and regulatory uncertainty.
This article is part of our seven-part series exploring 2024 commercial vehicle market trends, from new inventory recovery to evolving buyer behaviors.
Used Vehicle Inventory and Pricing Trends
After years of constrained new vehicle availability, dealers and operators see tangible improvements.
“Inventory levels for new vehicles are now higher than pre-pandemic levels, with light trucks and vans leading the way,” said Kathryn Schifferle, Chief Vision Officer at Work Truck Solutions. This recovery has relieved many fleets after years of navigating supply shortages caused by production delays and chip shortages.
However, the used vehicle market presents a different story. "Used inventory numbers have been dropping since Q1 2023,” Schifferle explained. “Although 2024 levels are still decreasing, the rate of decline has slowed. Used vehicle prices began dropping at the end of 2023, continuing into 2024. Meanwhile, the mileage on sold units is rising steadily, with a 5.8% year-over-year increase.”
Schifferle also noted a significant increase in Days to Turn (DTT) for new vehicles, reaching a four-year high. In contrast, DTT for used vehicles has decreased steadily since late 2023, reflecting stronger demand for pre-owned options.
Bill Bishop, SVP of Sales and Marketing at FLD, highlighted the stark divide in vehicle quality within the used market.
“One phenomenon that is perhaps more prevalent than any other is the divide between low mileage, high-quality vehicles, and high mileage, low-quality vehicles. The market is flooded with older assets, while premium, low-mileage units are rare and command top dollar,” Bishop noted.
Bishop provided a detailed breakdown by vehicle type:
Passenger vehicles: Down approximately 10% compared to 2023, performing better than any work truck class.
Class 3-5 trucks: Smaller vehicles like cutaways and box trucks saw the steepest declines, down as much as 35% year-over-year, while flatbeds and service bodies fared slightly better.
Class 6-7 trucks: Mixed performance overall, with box trucks flat to slightly down.
“Vocational builds remained stable, largely due to continued demand and body-building delays,” Bishop explained. “However, bucket trucks were hit particularly hard, down as much as 50% in the past five months.”
Heavy-Duty Trucks: A Buyers’ Market
The heavy-duty truck market, particularly Class 8 trucks, has emerged as one of 2024’s most notable trends.
“The marketplace has experienced its highest inventory level of commercial vehicles in six years,” said Shalynn Simmons, General Manager of Commercial Truck Trader. “Trucks for sale on our marketplace increased 37.2% in the last year alone.”
Falling prices have accompanied this inventory surge, offering significant opportunities for buyers.
“The average retail price for Class 8 trucks fell 20.3% year-over-year, dropping from $75,407 to around $60,115,” Simmons added. “At the same time, mileage has improved slightly, with averages decreasing from 434,000 miles to 416,000 miles.”
Several factors are driving this trend. “We’re seeing new and private businesses expand their fleets and trade in older models, but industry downsizing and buyer hesitancy due to current freight market conditions are also playing a role,” she noted.
Simmons also highlighted changing buyer demographics. “The industry is diversifying and becoming more inclusive. Women now represent 32% of the trucking workforce, and the average age of those behind the wheel is getting younger. For example, 68% of Class 8 truck buyers are Gen X and Millennials.”
This shift is part of a larger effort to tackle driver shortages while attracting a new generation of talent with competitive pay and better opportunities.
The Regulatory Impact on Vehicle Value
Regulations surrounding emissions standards further impacted market trends, particularly for heavy-duty vehicles. Holly Vollant, Remarketing Manager at Holman, pointed to the looming 2027 GHG-3 emissions standards as a driver of market activity.
“The shift to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could accelerate the depreciation of traditional diesel models,” Vollant explained. “However, pre-buy activity ahead of these regulations may temporarily stabilize demand and resale values as fleets secure current-generation vehicles.”
This uncertainty adds another layer of complexity for fleet managers, balancing cost pressures, lifecycle planning, and regulatory compliance.
“Many operators are looking to secure reliable vehicles now while avoiding the uncertainty of newer emissions technology,” Vollant added.
Aging Assets and Long-Term Resilience
The ripple effects of production disruptions in 2020-2022 are still being felt, forcing fleets to hold onto aging assets longer than anticipated.
“You can’t sell used vehicles without making new ones,” said Bishop of FLD. “We’ve seen fleets stretch their assets further than ever due to pandemic-driven production declines and supply chain issues. While new inventory levels are improving, lease return and rental cycles will still take several years to normalize.”
This longer lifecycle has also increased maintenance challenges and pushed up operating costs, especially for older vehicles with higher mileage.
Balancing Fleet Recovery with Uncertainty
Overall, the commercial vehicle market in 2024 reflects a transitionary period. While the new vehicle segment is showing recovery, the used vehicle market remains shaped by aging fleets, economic uncertainty, and shifting regulatory demands.
For fleet managers, navigating these changes means carefully balancing short-term needs with long-term planning. Whether securing high-quality used vehicles, adapting to lower prices in heavy-duty segments, or planning for emissions-driven market shifts, the ability to remain flexible will be critical.
As Bishop put it, “The past few years have taught us that resilience is everything, and we predict it will take several years before the industry fully normalizes.”
Check Out the Full 2024 Trends Series
Don’t miss the rest of the series:
