As November wraps up, medium-duty and heavy-duty truck values highlight a blend of stability and sector-specific adjustments. Seasonal depreciation is easing compared to previous years, but careful monitoring remains key for fleet managers.

What does this mean for your work truck fleet?

November Week-By-Week Highlights

• Week 1: November 5, 2024: Medium-duty trucks began the month with a marginal decline of 0.2%, aligning with seasonal expectations. Heavy-duty trucks showed mixed results, with over-the-road (OTR) models posting a 0.4% increase while construction trucks dipped slightly (-0.1%). Fleets remained focused on strategic purchases as interest rates continued to impact long-term decision-making.

• Week 2: November 12, 2024: Medium-duty truck values remained relatively flat, while heavy-duty segments gained momentum. Regional tractors (HR) saw the most significant week-over-week increase at +0.6%, indicating steady demand in local operations. OTR trucks added another +0.5% gain, emphasizing resilience in long-haul applications.

• Week 3: November 19, 2024: Heavy-duty sectors experienced another strong week, with regional tractors continuing their growth streak (+0.7%) and construction trucks reversing previous losses (+0.3%). Medium-duty trucks, however, faced a slight dip (-0.1%), marking a cautious pause amid fluctuating auction volumes.

• Week 4: November 26, 2024: As the month closed, all eyes were on medium-duty trucks, which saw a minor rebound of +0.1%. Heavy-duty trucks remained a bright spot: OTR trucks gained +0.9%, their highest weekly increase in months, while regional tractors and construction trucks posted modest gains of +0.4% and +0.2%, respectively. Fleets sought opportunities in newer models, particularly 2022 and 2023 trucks, which outperformed older ones.

Key Market Trends: November Overview

The medium- and heavy-duty truck market displayed a mix of steady performance and sector-specific shifts in November. 

While older medium-duty models saw slight depreciation, newer ones remained stable, reflecting improved year-to-date trends compared to 2023. Heavy-duty sectors showed varied movements, with newer models consistently demonstrating stronger value retention. 

Here’s a closer look at the key trends:

Medium-Duty Trucks

For model years 2014 to 2021, medium-duty trucks experienced a slight wholesale value decrease of 0.2% from October to November. This contrasts with a 0.2% increase during the same period last year. Year-to-date, these models have depreciated by 12.1%, a notable improvement over the 23.3% depreciation observed in 2023.

2022–2023 medium-duty trucks held steady with no net change from October to November, following three months of increases exceeding 1.0%. Year-to-date depreciation for these newer models is just 0.7%, a sharp improvement compared to the 10.8% decline recorded in 2023.

Heavy-Duty Trucks

Sector trends varied:

• Construction Trucks (HC): Older models saw a minor value decrease (-0.3%), contributing to a cumulative 17.6% depreciation this year.

• Over-the-Road Trucks (OTR): Values increased 0.9% month-over-month, despite a 9.9% year-to-date decline.

• Regional Tractors (HR): Experienced a 0.6% monthly increase, with a 5.9% year-to-date depreciation.

For 2022–2023 models, all three heavy-duty sectors reported value increases ranging from 0.5% to 1.5%, reflecting resilience in newer trucks.

Seizing Opportunities and Looking Ahead to 2025

Medium-duty trucks offer stability, while depreciation in heavy-duty models presents opportunities for cost-conscious acquisitions. Newer models have proven to hold their value better, making them a strategic choice.

As 2025 approaches, aligning purchasing strategies with these trends can keep your fleet competitive. Stay informed, evaluate inventory carefully, and make deliberate decisions to maximize your investments.