When we look at medium-duty truck models, we always think of the workhorses of the automotive industry. The selection and purchase of these trucks are not driven by emotion, but rather by smart thinking and objective analysis of which product and configuration can best do the job at hand.

Jobs today require new or additional trucks, and not just any model, but the right one, depending on the task. And in many cases, the configuration might not be powered by a traditional gasoline or diesel engine, but rather focus on fuel economy, lower emissions, and sustainability, along with the right suspension, bed, or box.

With an improving economy, much of which is driven by commercial construction, the pipeline of good late-model used medium-duty Class 4-7 trucks is not as robust as the markets for light-duty trucks, utility trucks, vans, and cars. This medium-duty market was a little slower to recover, as commercial financing needed a few more positive economic signs to jump-start sales.

Taking a Market Snapshot

Black Book's ongoing analysis found that, over the past 12 months, the later model medium-duty trucks, the 2012-2013 model years, had a higher depreciation percentage than the older, 2004-2011 model years only 4 times. Keep in mind that the later models have a wholesale value that is over twice that of the older model-year group.

We feel the strength in the later model-year group is related to slow build rates for new truck orders and, thus, the belief that later model-year trucks can adequately meet buyers' needs. With limited choices in the market, when you do find the right used truck, bidding might be a little more aggressive.

As of press time, over the past year, the older units had an average monthly depreciation of 1.2%, while the later model units were at 1%, with annual depreciation, rounded, coming in at 13.8% and 12.6%, respectively.

Forecasting the Market

With a solid commercial construction industry and continuing signs of economic recovery, the 13.2% depreciation rate for medium-duty trucks in 2014 is likely slightly higher than one would expect. Looking back at 2013, the level was even higher than expected, at 17.2%. The question before us is: with more new truck orders filling some of the inventory needs, how will the used-vehicle industry react? Taking all the factors into play, we expect 2015 to finish in the more traditional annual depreciation range of 15.5-16.5%.

For those of you who focus all of your attention on the Class 4-7 trucks, to quote Mike Antich, "Let me know what you think."

About the Author: Ricky Beggs is a senior vice president and editorial director at Black Book.