Despite the continued turmoil in the Middle East, the U.S. average retail price has fallen 15 out of the last 17 days, and experts believe that this trend will continue for the rest of August — unless a hurricane makes its way through the Gulf Coast. Currently, supplies are in good shape and demand remains in balance.

In July, gasoline prices climbed higher due to refinery problems and tensions in Egypt, which drove crude prices above $100 per barrel. At the start of July, the national average jumped from $3.47 to nearly $3.70 per gallon by the middle of the month. Some markets, such as the Great Lakes region, saw prices zoom past $4 per gallon.

Before Labor Day, analysts believe that some states could even see prices fall below $3 per gallon. Prices should continue to fade for the remainder of the fall, which is fairly standard when hurricanes don’t wreak havoc on the refining sector.

On Sept. 15, the U.S. will switch to an easier, cheaper way to make winter spec. And more refineries in Europe can meet that spec, so imports of finished gasoline will be more abundant — adding to a strong supply.

Meantime, diesel prices continue to hold steady at $3.95 per gallon. Diesel prices are likely to remain flat with heating oil season just around the corner.