Verisk CargoNet is alerting the trucking and logistics industry to exercise increased vigilance during the Thanksgiving holiday period as cargo theft traditionally intensifies during this time. Its analysis of historical data reveals significant year-over-year increases in theft incidents, with the 2025 Thanksgiving period likely to continue this dangerous trend.

Cargo Theft Trends

Key findings related to cargo theft, according to Verisk CargoNet, include:

• 79 cargo theft incidents recorded during the 2024 Thanksgiving analysis period, representing a 64.58% increase from 2023

• 2025 has seen a staggering escalation in theft values: As of November 18, Verisk CargoNet has recorded over $318 million in stolen cargo, with the average shipment value rising to $278,797

• California leads all states with 67 incidents, more than twice the number in Illinois (27) and Texas (26) 

Dramatic Rise in Holiday Theft Activity

Verisk CargoNet's five-year analysis of Thanksgiving week theft data shows a troubling escalation. The 2024 analysis period recorded 79 theft incidents, a 64.58% increase compared to 2023's 48 incidents. 

This represents a continuation of year-over-year increases observed since 2021, when only 29 incidents were recorded during the holiday period.

The data demonstrates that criminal organizations consistently exploit the Thanksgiving holiday period, when shipment volumes increase, and security staffing may be reduced. Criminal activity typically intensifies in the fourth quarter and reaches peak levels in December, a pattern Verisk CargoNet expects to continue in 2025.

High-Risk Cargo Categories

Food and beverage shipments represent the highest theft risk during the Thanksgiving period, with 31 incidents recorded in the 2024 analysis. However, thieves demonstrated a diverse appetite for cargo, targeting household products (24 incidents), electronics (19 incidents), and vehicles and accessories (14 incidents).

Historical data shows criminals consistently target high-value items, including computers, alcoholic beverages, and automobile tires, during the holiday period. The total commodity value of stolen goods during the 2024 analysis period reached $9.5 million, with an average theft value exceeding $151,500.

Emerging Threat Categories in 2025

Verisk CargoNet has identified emerging threat categories throughout 2025 that warrant particular attention: truckload quantities of copper shipments, enterprise server hardware, and nutritional supplements. Multi-million-dollar thefts of computer components used by AI firms and in cryptocurrency mining are common, leading to 2025's average shipment value increasing to $278,797, and recorded loss value exceeding $318 million.

Geographic Concentration & Emerging Hotspots

California remains the most heavily targeted state, with 67 recorded incidents, followed by Illinois (27) and Texas (26). Florida (15 incidents) and Georgia (11 incidents) round out the top five states for theft activity.

Verisk CargoNet has identified four counties warranting particular attention: 

• San Bernardino County, California

• Los Angeles County, California

• Cook County, Illinois

• Dallas County, Texas

The New York City metropolitan area has become a major hub for sophisticated shipment misdirection schemes. Criminal organizations in this region employ complex fraud techniques to steal loaded conveyances, and Verisk CargoNet anticipates this activity will continue throughout the holiday season.

"What we're seeing in the New York City metropolitan area is particularly concerning," said Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk CargoNet. "Criminal organizations have transformed this region into a sophisticated operation hub for shipment misdirection and fraud. Combined with the persistent threats in California, Illinois, and Texas, the geographic spread of organized cargo theft requires a coordinated, industry-wide security response during the Thanksgiving period and beyond."

Recommendations for Supply Chain Security

Verisk CargoNet urges all supply chain stakeholders to implement enhanced security measures during the Thanksgiving holiday period and throughout the remainder of the year. Companies should verify the legitimacy of all carriers and freight brokers, secure vehicles and trailers in well-lit and monitored locations, and maintain communication with drivers throughout transit periods.

Motor carriers should exercise particular caution when accepting loads involving high-value commodities or when conducting business with unfamiliar partners. The increased incident rates during holiday periods make this an especially critical time for rigorous security protocols.