The commercial vehicle market did not calm down in 2025. New truck pricing dipped slightly, used inventory shifted, vans remained a challenge, and OEMs doubled down on commercial customers. 

Fleets faced an unpredictable mix of availability, incentives, and product constraints, prompting them to diversify, delay, or rethink their replacement strategies. It wasn’t chaos. It was more like a cautious shuffle, with fleets adjusting plans one quarter at a time.

The Commercial Market Flattened but Stayed Strong

Kathryn Schifferle, founder and chief vision officer at Work Truck Solutions, said the data showed a market that was holding steady, even if it looked a little different each quarter.

She pointed out that new commercial vehicle sales plateaued in the third quarter of 2025, while remaining significantly up year over year. Inventory adjustments were happening across the board, and pricing reflected it.

“As predicted, 2025 is showing the average price for new commercial vehicles are down year over year 1.7% as we head into Q4,” Schifferle said.

The used market brought its own twist. Lower mileage vehicles were more available, but prices didn’t rise the way conventional wisdom would suggest.

Schifferle noted that used work trucks and vans showed “median mileage decreased by more than 2% year over year heading into Q4 2025,” but prices still fell 4.8%.

In other words, the used-vehicle market had healthier vehicles, but buyers were still cautious.

‘Right Vehicle at the Right Time’ Became the New Standard

With pricing adjusting and demand staying steady, fleets had to plan smarter. Schifferle emphasized that the key wasn’t just availability. It was alignment.

She said the market made it clear that “it’s critical that both production and dealership inventory align well with buyer demand. Said another way, it’s about having the right trucks and vans to match the needs of the market, at the right time.”

Fleets with strong planning, tighter spec discipline, and better forecasting were able to navigate the fluctuations without major disruptions.

Replacing Small Cargo Vans Remained a Challenge

While many segments stabilized, small cargo vans continued to frustrate fleet managers. Kendra Rupp, regional vice president of client partnerships at Mike Albert Fleet Solutions, said fleets tried multiple substitutes when sourcing small vans was difficult.

Rupp said many companies looked to full-size vans, SUVs with upfits, or pickups with caps and upfits. Each came with its own limitations:

• Full-size vans pushed budgets.

• Pickups with caps didn’t always fit the job.

• SUVs couldn’t always accommodate necessary upfits.

Those compromises made spec development more complex and often slowed replacement cycles.

OEMs Put More Weight Behind Commercial Customers

OEM attention shifted noticeably. With retail softness across several segments, Ford, GM, and Ram leaned harder into commercial dealer programs, upfitter partnerships, and fleet-specific products.

Schifferle said this increased focus gave fleets access to more specialized support, better dealer expertise, and a stronger lineup of commercial products designed for real work.

It also helped dealers intentionally adjust inventory toward high-margin segments like work trucks and SUVs, something many buyers appreciated, as long as the options aligned with their needs.

Upfitting Mattered More Than Ever

Purpose-built capability remained one of the strongest demand drivers.

Ford Pro highlighted that customers continued to gravitate toward vehicles designed for specific work environments. Crews wanted corrosion resistance, higher payload and towing, onboard power systems, and upfits that eliminated the need to run multiple vehicles to a job site.

Partnerships with upfitters such as Knapheide, Reading Truck, and Warner Bodies played a big role in helping fleets create the right configurations at the right time.

And because upfitted vehicles are harder to replace if they go down, availability wasn’t just about trucks on the lot. It was about trucks that could be ready for service quickly.

Fleets Rebalanced Their Approaches to Replacement

Tariffs, incentives, and market instability pushed many fleets into a cautious mindset.

Rupp said companies sometimes extended existing contracts, delayed purchases, or mixed vehicle types to spread risk. Diversifying the lineup helped fleets navigate rising upfit costs, lower incentives, and unpredictable van inventory.

Battery costs, steel-heavy components, and semiconductor availability also influenced timelines, especially for fleets testing EVs or hybrids.

Brian Fournier, Americas senior vice president and general manager of fleet and mobility at WEX, noted that tariffs in early 2025 pushed the weighted average U.S. tariff rate from 2% to more than 20%. For fleets buying battery-heavy or upfit-heavy vehicles, that shift mattered.

New Suppliers Stepped in to Solve Old Problems

Diana Holland, managing director at Cavis, said cost pressure and supply chain volatility lowered long-standing barriers to entry across the fleet ecosystem.

 “With traditional channels strained, fleets became much more open to considering new suppliers, new upfit partners, and new technology providers,” she said.

Instead of relying on a limited pool of legacy vendors, fleets sought partners who could move faster, respond more flexibly, or better match evolving spec requirements. Holland noted that this shift helped some operators solve long-standing challenges around availability, upfit timing, and operational support. 

“Exploring new relationships gave fleets options they haven’t had in years,” she said.

Market Stability Improved, but Discipline Was Key

What defined the 2025 market wasn’t scarcity. It was imbalance.

Some segments offered more flexibility. Others (especially vans) stayed tight. New pricing softened slightly. Used pricing softened more. And OEMs increased their commercial presence.

Fleets that tracked the data, stayed close to their dealers, and diversified their replacement plans weathered the changes better than those relying on pre-2020 assumptions.

Heading into 2026, the message is simple. The commercial market is workable again, but only for fleets willing to plan, forecast, and build strong relationships with dealers and upfitters who understand their operational needs.

Catch Up on the Rest of the 2025 Work Truck Trends Series

This piece wraps up our full look at how 2025 reshaped work truck fleets. If you missed any earlier sections, here’s where to go next:

• Part 1: How Rising Costs Reshaped Work Truck Fleets: fleets tightened budgets and tackled the hidden costs of downtime.

• Part 2: Data Became the Backbone of Fleet Decisions: telematics and AI helped fleets manage smarter and coach earlier.

• Part 3: Maintenance and Uptime Took Center Stage: mobile repair and predictive tools became uptime essentials.

• Part 4: Safety, Security, and Risk Became Non-Negotiable: a tougher risk environment pushed fleets to modernize safety.

• Part 5: Energy Strategies Shifted as Fleets Rebalanced Options: fleets mixed EVs, hybrids, propane autogas, and diesel to stay productive.

• Part 6: Workforce Pressures Forced New Approaches: better coaching, culture, and tech helped fleets support their people.