Work Truck Solutions just dropped its first quarter 2025 Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis, and while the numbers show a fairly steady scene when it comes to inventory, the undercurrent tells a different story, one of market hesitancy and a watchful eye on global trade and emissions policies.

What's Up with New Trucks and Vans?

The average number of new commercial vehicles on dealer lots held steady this quarter, no change from Q4, but that’s after a hefty 24.1% year-over-year jump. Even so, sales per dealer dipped by 11.1% from last quarter, although they’re still sitting 9.1% higher than this time last year. So, yes, inventory is up. Sales? A little slower.

Pricing stayed mostly flat too, down just 0.7% quarter-over-quarter and up 0.4% year-over-year. But here's the kicker, Days to Turn (DTT) is creeping up again. It rose 12.4% over Q4 and a whopping 65.4% compared to Q1 2024, showing us that vehicles are spending a lot more time on the lot.

Sound familiar? It should. Work Truck Solutions likens it to early COVID-era hesitation, back then, business owners didn’t instantly jump into truck-buying mode even as inventories shrank. Now, the uncertainty tied to possible tariffs and supply chain impacts is stirring up similar caution. The company predicts that this could flip into accelerated purchases later this year if trade tensions keep heating up.

Used Market Trends Hanging In

Used commercial vehicles are hanging in there. Inventory rose modestly (up 3.7% QoQ), but remained flat year-over-year. Sales volume per dealer didn’t budge from last quarter but climbed 10% over Q1 2024.

Used prices stayed put compared to Q4, though they dipped 6.3% compared to last year. Average mileage continues to trend up, which isn’t surprising given extended fleet lifecycles over the past few years. DTT ticked up 5.8% from Q4, but dropped 1.8% year-over-year, suggesting used trucks are still moving relatively well.

The BEV Breakdown

Battery electric vehicle (BEV) pricing got interesting this quarter. New BEV final prices jumped 11.4% from Q4 and 6.1% year-over-year. But on the flip side, used BEV prices fell, down 9.2% QoQ and 17.08% compared to a year ago. It’s a strong indicator of evolving demand dynamics in the commercial EV space, where resale value is still being figured out.

Insight from the Top

Aaron Johnson, CEO of Work Truck Solutions, called the current market one of “rebalancing,” pointing to stable new inventory and minor price swings. But he also flagged global trade tension as a serious wildcard, one that could mess with supply chains all over again, just like in 2020.

Dealers who embraced digital merchandising during the pandemic will be the ones to watch, according to Johnson. “The ability to showcase available vehicles efficiently, connect with buyers online, and optimize inventory visibility has proven to be a timeless advantage,” he said.

He also noted that shifting policies on emissions, interest rates, and economic outlooks are all shaping buying behavior. “Business owners and fleet operators are being very strategic about their approach to low-emission vehicles,” Johnson added, especially when it comes to evaluating ROI on delivery applications and other business-specific needs.