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The average residual value of a three-year-old vehicle — the most commonly remarketed fleet vehicle — will fall 8% by 2019 as a result of an increase in the supply of used vehicles, according to a Black Book forecast.
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Rising used vehicle depreciation pulled average April values into the red in a month that's typically the last strong month of the spring season, according to Black Book.
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Used vehicles depreciated an average of 3.6% in the first quarter compared to 0.6% in 2015 in a signal of sharper depreciation, but values improved in March over January and February levels, according to Black Book.
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Used commercial vehicle transactions of GVW 3-8 vehicles were just over 176,000 units during the last quarter of the 2015 calendar year, up 14.3 percent from the same time period in 2014 calendar year.
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The wholesale used-vehicle market finished 2015 stronger than expected with an average 13.2% depreciation rate for used vehicles two to six years old and trucks retaining their value 9% better than passenger cars on average.
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Certified pre-owned vehicle sales accounted for 22.7 percent of used sales by dealers, setting a record for a single quarter, according to a report by Edmund's.com. Overall, the sale of used vehicles came in strong in the second quarter of 2015 at approximately $9.6 million, growing at a 5.1 percent year-over-year.
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Trucks and SUVs logged the strongest resale value during July in a month that saw lighter depreciation of 1.3 percent for 2010-2014 model year vehicles, according to Black Book.
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The average price of a used vehicle fell 1.2 percent in February as colder weather brought strength to SUV segments for the month, according to Black Book.
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The full-size pickup fleet segment depreciated by only 4.9 percent over the past 12 months; however, this rate is unlikely to continue into 2015.
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The used full-size van market has remained strong throughout 2014, but it is expected to decline in 2015. Part of the reason for the strength of the used van segment is the discontinuation of traditional U.S.-style vans by OEMs as the new European-style vans are released.
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