New analysis from R.L. Polk on its blog says that the commercial van segment in the U.S. is growing as it splits into two categories, full-size and compact, where once only the full-size category existed, due to the arrival of a number of new models in the marketplace.

This market fragmentation mirror’s the growing number of different vehicles and categories in the general automotive marketplace, Polk’s Senior Forecasting Analyst Tom Libby stated in an analysis on the company’s website. Polk stated that in 2008, the commercial van buyer had five models to choose from but that by 2014, there will be 11 models on the market.

Libby said Polk is forecasting that total van registrations, not including mid-size passenger vans such as the Dodge Caravan, will rise from 155,900 in 2009 to 301,000 this year and 365,000 in 2014. (This number includes registrations for vans sold to private customers in addition to fleet customers.) The commercial van’s market share will increase from 1.5% in 2009 to 2.0% in 2013 and grow further to 2.3% in 2014, according to Polk.

As for the major upcoming commercial van launches for the U.S. market, Polk noted Nissan’s launch of the NV200 this year in the compact van category, Chrysler’s launch of the new Ram ProMaster in the full-size van category in 2014, Ford’s launch of its full-size Transit, Mercedes/Freightliner’s launch of a new version of its Sprinter for 2014, and GM’s recent announcement of its deal with Nissan to source the new Chevrolet City Express compact van. Polk also noted the possibility of Volkswagen bringing a version of its Caddy commercial van to the U.S. as an additional choice.