This would be an increase from the 2021 market of only 1%. Growth in 2022 and 2023 will be driven by utility and light-duty trucks, such as vans in the U.K. and pickup trucks in the U.S.
From 2024 to 2030, medium-duty and heavy-duty distribution vehicles will also make a strong contribution. Long-haul trucks are forecast to remain a low percentage BEV for much of the decade, according to the research.
China, backed by government strategy and investment for some years has had a strong start and currently has a BEV truck penetration rate of 2% in 2021, double the global average.
However, in the next few years, many new vehicles will be launched in the U.S. (or already existing vehicles will start to achieve a larger production scale). According to Interact Analysis' OEM and model level database, it forecasts the Ford F-150 Lighting to lead sales of BEV trucks in North America, with Rivian, Tesla, and BrightDrop making significant contributions as well.
While supply chain challenges are persistent in the short term due to the effects of Ukraine and COVID, these appear to be a temporary restraint on short-term growth.The research forecasts capacity utilizations for battery production in the short to medium term to remain in the range of 62%-65% and OEMs are still building up vehicle production factories.
The analysis on the total cost of ownership (TCO), most types of electric vehicle will, in the next few years become less expensive than competing vehicles using diesel or other powertrain technologies.
Due to the high cost of the fuel cell vehicles, the fuel and the infrastructure, the analysis is forecasting low adoption to 2030.
According to Interact Analysis, China has a higher forecast than other countries due to a strong focus from government, but the general direction globally is a steady trend to BEV in most cases rather than fuel cell vehicles.