Automotive telematics applications will influence most auto electronics, creating "an e-vehicle wonderland" by 2004, according to a new global study by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

A wide variety of powerful players will engage on the telematics battlefield, according to the study, which predicts that automotive telematics subscribers in the U.S. will grow from about 820,000 today to more than 11 million subscribers by 2004.

The perfection of the human/machine interface in vehicles, however, is crucial to that growth, the study notes. Banking and shopping from the car will account for the greatest share of applications, in addition to the obvious voice communications use of mobile telephones, according to the report.

The report, available in November 2000 from Roland Berger, is an outgrowth of a previous Berger study of the overall automotive electronics market worldwide which was released last February.

"Our earlier study predicted that automotive electronics applications would grow much faster than the automotive market generally," said Michael M. Heidingsfelder, partner and executive vice president of Roland Berger at the company's Detroit office.

"That dramatic growth was, in effect, the first electronics revolution in autos, and the surge in telematics is the second revolution," Heidingsfelder said.

"Now it's becoming clear that telematics will lead the electronics systems growth parade, and that consumer demand will drive the creation of an incredible array of e-vehicle features," he said. "Our study shows that telematics will influence powertrain, chassis, safety, security, infotainment and interface display systems."

According to the global Roland Berger study, the e-vehicle wonderland of tomorrow will provide a broad range of services to the driver and passengers such as:

* Mobile office features like e-mail, Internet access and telephone

* Mobile commerce features such as shopping and banking

* Traffic and navigation information including dynamic navigation

* Information services

* Emergency and safety features such as remote diagnostics.

Audio, TV/video and computer games, and -- down the road -- intelligent driving features such as braking by GPS (global positioning system), are candidate functions as well. Recent transportation studies have shown that average time spent in vehicles -- as both driver and passenger -- totals some 540 hours per year in the U.S. and 270 hours per year in Eruope, representing (in the U.S.) some nine percent of day-time available.

The size of the telematics market and its rate of growth, however, will be strongly affected by legislation and regulations affecting cell phone use in moving vehicles, the study noted. By mid-2005, for example, estimates of the size of the U.S. market range from about $3 billion up to $13.4 billion -- depending on the effects of legislation and industry self-regulation to reduce accidents caused by distractions (today about 25 percent of crashes, according to the National Highway Transportation and Safety Administration).

In the U.S., NHTSA has already launched a major investigation into cell phone usage while driving. In Europe, 95 percent of countries enforce hands-free use of cell phones, and in Portugal, drivers are forbidden to use car phones at all while driving.

In early October, Suffolk County, N.Y., just minutes from New York City, banned talking on cell phones in moving autos, with a fine of $150 for violators. In order to protect the telematics market, the OEMS and suppliers must work quickly to perfect the critical human/machine interface, according to Heidingsfelder.

The target of the interface must be "keep your eyes on the road and your hands upon the wheel," as the old Doors song went.

To enable the e-vehicle and a "car portal" through which a myriad of features will be available, the study says, four technologies must converge:

1. A sharp increase in bandwidth for mobile data communication (surpassing 2,000 kbps by the middle of the decade)

2. Maturity of systems for voice recognition and text-voice conversion

3. Smart human/machine interface logic to guide the drive quickly and efficiently through the different menus and features

4. Global positioning system (GPS). According to the study, a central, integrated instrument panel will be developed that is customizable like a computer screen and can display information according to the needs and preferences of the driver.