Vehicle Market Report: September 2023

The UAW strike loomed larger in the beginning of September.

The industry braced for potential repercussions, resulting in a deceleration in market depreciation, according to Black Book experts.

After the strike, auction conversion rates surged as buyers geared up for a possible inventory dip. While the depreciation rate slowed compared to the previous week, the weekly declines still surpass the usual seasonal fluctuations.

In mid-September, the UAW initiated their strike, auction activity saw an uptick toward the week's end.

The extent of the strike's impact on the used car market hinges on its duration. In 2019, during the last UAW strike, its brevity and an existing surplus of new inventory meant minimal impact on used values.

In contrast, the current scenario involves supply levels gradually returning to a "normal" state post-pandemic. Consequently, a prolonged strike might drive up used prices in the short term.

As for the last week in September, the UAW strike persisted and the market entered a phase of pricing stability.

Despite this, a noticeable surge in buyer interest at auctions is reflected in consistently rising conversion rates each week.

Wholesale Truck Market

The Truck segment experienced a volume-weighted decrease of 0.69% in early September, a significant improvement from the preceding week's depreciation of 1.38%.

In the 0-to-2-year-old category, models declined by 0.47%, while the 8-to-16-year-olds saw a decrease of 0.73%.

There was a decline across all 13 Truck segments, with four exceeding 1%. Notably, the Sub-Compact Crossover segment had the most substantial decline at 1.35%, compared to 1.55% the previous week.

Similarly, Sub-Compact Luxury Crossovers exhibited significant depreciation, down 1.34% this week, compared to 1.55% in the previous week.

In contrast, Full-Size Truck depreciation exhibited a marked slowdown, declining by 0.30% this week, compared to the previous week's larger decline of 1.12%.

For the last week of September, the volume-weighted Truck segment experienced a marginal decrease of 0.05%, significantly less than the prior week's depreciation of 0.19%.

Models aged 0-to-2 years remained stable, showing no average change, while the 8-to-16-year-olds declined by 0.25%.

Three of the 13 Truck segments saw increases, led by Small Pickup with the largest rise at 0.26%, followed by Mid-Size Crossover (0.19%) and Compact Crossover (0.09%).

The Mid-Size Crossover segment also witnessed a 0.08% increase in the preceding week.

Conversely, Compact Van recorded the most substantial decline at 1.28%, marking the segment's 25 consecutive week of decline, with an average weekly decrease of 0.62%.