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Used Vehicle Values

Used Truck Prices Holding Steady

Used truck prices are holding steady, with supply still dictating pricing. That’s the word from J.D. Power’s Commercial Truck Guidelines for March, which notes that February is the first month in any new year with a high enough volume of used truck auctions to allow analysts to identify market trends.

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Remarketing Déjà Vu: Will the Resale Market of 2016 be a Repeat of 2002?

Many of the dynamics in today’s market are eerily familiar to the resale value softness that occurred in the last decade, which ultimately peaked in 2002. At that time, year-over-year increases of off-lease vehicles entering the wholesale market exerted downward pressure on resale prices. It appears that we are on the same trajectory, with off-lease volumes peaking in 2016. What are you doing to prepare for these different market dynamics?

Return of 'Normal' Used-Vehicle Market Demands Seasonal Remarketing Strategy

For the past three years, everyone has been a remarketing genius. The low inventory of used vehicles in the wholesale market helped inflate resale values by about 10 percent. However, as greater volumes of used vehicles begin to enter the wholesale market, vehicle supply will start to meet buyer demand, which will put downward pressure on resale values. In many ways, the new used-vehicle market will demand returning to the basics, namely recognizing the seasonality of the used-vehicle market.

Forecast of Medium-Duty Resale Values for 2011-2012

There is a shortage of medium-duty trucks in the wholesale market due to the low volume of new units ordered from 2007 to 2010. This inventory shortage is forecast to persist for several years. The net result is higher resale values.

Resale Values Up, But Market Remains Fragile

Wholesale used-vehicle prices during fourth quarter 2008 were the worst on record. Since then, wholesale prices rose significantly in January through March. The improvement in pricing in 1Q 2009 reflects better-than-expected retail sales of used vehicles. Resale values for mid-size sedans are substantially higher than in 2008, as are prices for light-duty trucks and SUVs. However, consumer confidence and credit availability remain two wildcards to the market's ongoing vitality.

How Long Will the Slump in Used-Vehicle Values Last?

We are currently in the midst of the worst used-vehicle market in the past 25 years. Year-over-year prices declined every month in 2008; however, wholesale prices did improve the first 10 days of January. Despite this, many fleets now find that the depreciation rates established 24-36 months ago are insufficient for today's resale market. In many cases, resale values of fleet vehicles are significantly below the remaining book value. Here's a forecast for what lies ahead in the wholesale market.

Used-Vehicle Market Nosedives in October: More Downward Movement Anticipated

October was an extremely difficult month to remarket vehicles in the wholesale market as resale prices took a precipitous drop. Wholesale pricing, based on mixed mileage and seasonally adjusted, declined a record 6 percent in October. The lack of credit to both dealers and retail buyers has been the key catalyst contributing to the downturn in the wholesale market. The market forecast is gloomy until the credit gridlock is resolved.

Think Like a Used-Car Sales Manager

When resale prices soften, there is a pendulum-like resurgence in marketing used vehicles to employees. On the other hand, when the resale market is strong, fleets are complacent about employee sales (waiting for buyers come to them) and do not aggressively market the program to new buyers. The national average of vehicles sold to employees is 23 percent. However, by aggressively marketing employee sales, many fleets could sell as much as 50 percent of their vehicles in-house.