Black Book Lender Solutions analyzed historical vehicle segment data and has developed projected retention levels for the next 12 to 24 months. Below is the breakdown of projected retention across all 24 segments, with analysis of the segments expected to outperform and underperform.

Pickups Remain Strong 

Compact, mid-size, and full-size pickups have all enjoyed strong retention during the past 12 months and are expected to continue to outperform during the next 12-24 months, offering a strong growth opportunity for auto lenders looking to expand their portfolios. 

“Pickups are expected to remain strong for auto lenders during the next two years particularly since the service industry is picking up from an economy that wants to improve,” said Jeff Bunch, VP of Black Book Lender Solutions. “There continues to be low supply due to manufacturer cutbacks in those segments during the downturn.”  

Premium Sporty Cars will outperform the average vehicle retention rates over the next 12-24 months because of less supply currently in the market.

Crossovers Less Competitive Than SUVs

Full-Size CUVs -- such as the GMC Acadia, Buick Enclave, Ford Flex, and Cadillac SRX -- will also outperform average retention. Consumers are replacing full-size SUVs with vehicles in this segment, which also has low supply and is less competitive than the SUVs.

Entry-Level Cars & Mini Vans To Underperform

Entry-Level Cars are projected to underperform average retention levels in the next 12-24 months. Vehicles in this segment include the Chevrolet Aveo, Honda Fit, Toyota Yaris, and Hyundai Accent. Fuel prices have remained steady and greater fuel efficiency from mid-size segments is pulling customer demand.

Passenger Minivans are also projected to underperform in the near term as the popularity of crossover segments pull more customer demand and vehicle replacement.

Here is the complete segment breakdown according to Black Book Lender Solutions:

Segment

Average of past 12 month retention

Average of 12m retention

Average of 24m retention

Full-Size Pickup

95.22%

80.47%

68.85%

Mid-Size Pickup

94.97%

81.55%

70.13%

Compact Pickup

94.78%

81.73%

71.09%

Full-Size Van Cargo

90.97%

76.07%

62.52%

Compact SUV

90.83%

79.88%

67.73%

Full-Size Vans Wagon (Pass)

90.31%

77.30%

63.63%

Full-Size SUV

88.52%

79.19%

65.66%

Minivan Cargo

87.95%

78.65%

64.31%

Mid-Size SUV

87.76%

80.49%

66.61%

Luxury SUV

86.87%

80.56%

67.28%

Sporty Car

86.31%

80.85%

68.50%

Compact CUV

85.76%

81.05%

67.86%

Mid-Size CUV

85.37%

80.38%

67.47%

Luxury Level Car

85.22%

80.21%

66.48%

Premium Sporty Car

85.06%

82.08%

69.28%

Near Luxury Car

84.10%

80.03%

66.63%

Full-Size Car

84.01%

81.04%

68.41%

Prestige Luxury Car

83.31%

79.90%

65.74%

Minivan Wagon (Pass)

83.22%

78.04%

63.90%

Full-Size CUV

82.95%

82.60%

69.47%

Upper Mid-Size Car

81.95%

80.90%

67.71%

Entry Level Car

81.23%

77.91%

64.75%

Compact Car

80.86%

80.62%

67.62%

Entry Mid-Size Car

78.22%

80.02%

66.36%

Grand Total

85.90%

80.25%

67.19%

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