July 2010, Work Truck - Feature
How to Predict & Address At-Risk Driver Behaviors
If not corrected, certain driving behaviors greatly increase the odds the driver will be involved in a crash. Find out how to avoid on-the-job driving accidents.
By Thomas Bray
Much anecdotal evidence and even a few studies predict future crash involvement by a specific driver. Results from a recent study conducted by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), in conjunction with the North Dakota State Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute (UGPTI), tracked more than 500,000 commercial drivers to determine the probability of being involved in a future accident. The three-year study turned up several surprises relevant to any company whose employees regularly drive on the job.
Understanding Driver Behavior
Drivers in the study were tracked for three years. Any time a participant was involved in a crash, the individual's driving and compliance history was checked. The data was then aggregated.
Surprising study results included:
■ Being involved in a previous crash is not a reliable predictor of a future crash. In terms of predicting future crash involvement, this factor came in seventh. A crash is many times the result of a bad behavior pattern. If, after a crash, the driver realizes the bad behavior and corrects it, the odds of that driver becoming involved in a future crash are reduced.
■ Drivers cited, but not convicted, for certain moving violations are more likely to be involved in an accident in the future. Drivers who had received certain violations (not convictions) had an increased likelihood (up to 325 percent) of being involved in a future crash. In contrast, drivers who received a violation for an improper turn were 105 percent more likely to be involved in a future crash.
Among convictions, improper or erratic lane change, failure to yield right of way, improper turn, and failure to maintain a proper lane had the highest increased likelihood of future crash involvement. If a driver was convicted of one of these violations, the likelihood of future crash involvement increased 91-100 percent.
The events showing the highest probability of future crash involvement (followed by increased odds the driver would be involved in a future crash) included:
The study indicates what some safety managers have known for years: If not corrected, certain driver behaviors greatly increase the odds the driver will be involved in a future crash. A driver who "follows too closely" habitually does not maintain adequate space around the vehicle or drives too fast when compared to other traffic. If the driver does not correct the core behavior leading to "following too closely," the driver is at a considerably higher risk of a crash.
Bottom line: "Following too closely" is not the problem; the behavior leading to the "following too closely" is the actual problem.